My Prediction

Here it is. Electoral Vote is a website I've long followed, having the most accurate polls. It's the poll to the left of this article. The site uses only non-partisan polls (so not groups like PPP), and polls state-by-state, showing the latest predicted electoral votes. It uses the most recent poll, as well as the average of any within a week. Based on all of this, Electoral Vote, along with most internet sites, have been predicting an Obama blowout for the last couple months, long before the traditional news media like CNN, who want to extend their ratings and viewers for as long as possible.

Electoral Vote also shows each state by if it's Barely, Weak, or Strong Republican or Democrat, based on 1-4%, 5-9%, and greater than 10% respectively. (There's also a category for an absolute tie.) Four years ago, four days before the election, Kerry was predicted to win. But what was more important was the Strong States, which Bush was winning over Kerry 2:1 four days out. The day before, Bush was ahead of Kerry on all counts.

Obama is currently not only way ahead of McCain by a large margin, 353:185, far ahead of the needed 270, but in the Strong States he leads 238:118. True, a week ago he was above 270 in the Strong States. But keep in mind that many have already voted at this point, around a third of the electorate. And those 238 are electoral votes that Obama has by over 10%- nearly impossible for him to lose. He needs only 32 more from his Weak or Barely States.

So, based on my calculations of poll closing times at Swing State Project, I'm predicting that we'll be able to know who the next President is (Obama), by the closing of polls in New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Colorado, and New Mexico, at 8 PM, Central Standard Time. At that time, of the predicted blue states, only Iowa will be needed to get to 270, and Iowa's seven will be there in another hour- but if Missouri, Indiana, or Georgia end up going to Obama, he won't need Iowa. That means, if you're one of my Pacific Coast readers- vote before 6 PM, if you want your vote to matter!